In Between Times 12-8-2023
Chinese and global carbon increase - US decreases, OPEC draws a line in the sand at COP, Innovation and sustainability, Battery prices are falling
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Growth of Chinese fossil CO2 emissions drives new global record in 2023
China emits 31% of global carbon emissions and is far and away the largest emitter with the US a distant second with 14%. India is third with roughly 8%.
In the next year China is expected to increase emissions by 4%. India is projected to increase emissions by 8.2%. The United States is projected to decrease emissions by 3%.
The point is made in the attached piece that the US constitutes a larger portion of historical or legacy carbon emissions, but we are presented with an interesting split nonetheless. The US is clearly moving in the right direction, driven largely by innovation in tech, where China and India are not. Indeed China is building the equivalent of two coal fired power plants every week! (Though it is also at the front of developing renewables.)
One of the big questions for those who care about climate change and carbon emissions is how China will be reigned in, because right now the efforts in the West are being negated by the increased use of coal in the East.
(From Carbon Brief)
China represents 31% of global CO2 emissions. Their emissions in 2023 are projected to increase by 4% (with an uncertainty range of 1.9% to 6.1%), driven by a rise in emissions from coal (+3.3%), oil (+9.9%) and natural gas (+6.5%). The strong growth in Chinese emissions in 2023 is partly due to a delayed rebound from Covid-19 lockdowns.
India represents 8% of global emissions. In 2023, Indian emissions are projected to increase by 8.2% (ranging from 6.7% to 9.7%), with a 9.5% increase in emissions from coal, a 5.3% increase in emissions from oil, a 5.6% increase in emissions from natural gas and a 8.8% increase in emissions from cement.
The large growth in coal in India is being driven by rapid increases in electricity demand. While India is installing large amounts of renewable energy, it is still far from sufficient to meet the growth in demand. Emissions from India now exceed those from the European Union, though they remain much smaller on a per-capita basis.
Click here for the article.
China continues coal spree despite climate goals
How China became the biggest polluter and source of renewable energy at the same time
OPEC urges members to reject fossil-fuels targeting at COP28
This was bound to happen. It looks like OPEC is drawing a line in the sands of the Middle East and beyond. The cartel sees the effort to decarbonize as an existential threat to their industry, which many people seeking to decarbonize are probably just fine with. But if this is the official stance of OPEC it is wise to anticipate a significant counteroffensive from the cartel. OPEC has massive resources and it is not inclined to just slink off into the night. Indeed, and here’s a prediction, one will start to hear decarbonization criticized as a form of neocolonialism. This might be a main narrative point.
(From Reuters)
OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais has urged OPEC members to reject proposals for any deal under negotiation at the COP28 climate summit which targeted fossil fuels rather than emissions, a letter dated Dec. 6 and seen by Reuters on Friday showed.
The language used to describe the future of fossil fuels in a final agreement is the most contentious issue at the U.N. summit hosted this year by the United Arab Emirates.
Click here for the article.
Pledges made so far at the COP28 climate talks
Sustainability could be opportunity to innovate, says Merck
Merck has been recognized recently as one of the top ten sustainable worldwide corporations. And the company is right, sustainability is an OPPORTUNITY to innovate.
Indeed, innovation might be the most important factor in the effort to build a more sustainable world. How do we solve problems with novel thinking and new technologies? History has shown us over and over that problems that seem intransigent can suddenly be solved with new tech. The world before penicillin and the world post-penicillin was very different. What were grave concerns suddenly became of less concern. It is possible, maybe even probable that some of the pieces of the climate puzzle (for instance) that seem unsolvable will be solved by future innovation. But keeping the innovation train going is key.
(From BioProcess International)
“The key is to look at [your processes] critically and to think what is going to have the biggest impact and where should I invest? What can be done from the very beginning to minimize the environmental impact? If you are going to develop a new product, see that as an opportunity to innovate.”
Roush told attendees that there are ways to innovate based on science, which have a direct impact on environmental footprint. For example, increased efficiency of membrane utilization reduces water, electrical requirements, and CO2 emissions.
Click here for the article.
Battery prices are falling again, and that’s a good thing
Of course it is, and prices are probably going to have to drop farther. Fundamentally EVs need to come inline with the cost of gas powered vehicles. That is the first step toward a broadly EV fleet in the US and globally. That is step one. Lower battery prices are a key part of that step.
The next stage, which may really be the sea change, is if EVs become less expensive than gas cars. It can happen.
Right now EV sales are stalling pretty significantly. But if EVs become less expensive than gas powered vehicles while providing the same range (or even better range) as gas powered vehicles, this will move many people to electrics.
(From Inside Climate News)
“It’s an interesting year,” she said. “Historically, battery price declines were largely attributed to technological innovation. And this year, it’s not that this is not the case, it’s just that it’s not the biggest factor. The biggest factor that drove the price decline is dropping raw material costs.”
Lithium is among the raw materials whose costs have fallen by a lot in 2023.
Another factor is that the demand for batteries has been less than some companies’ expectations, even though that appetite has grown, she said.
Click here for the article.
EVENT
December 11 @ 10:00 am - 11:30 am EST
Reducing Regulatory Costs and Timelines for Power Plant Development
Location: Online
Excessive regulatory costs and delays for new power plant development are driving up customer energy bills and threatening grid reliability amid resurgent electric demand. Permitting and generator interconnection approvals, in particular, are preventing or delaying fossil and renewable projects by a decade in many regions. The exception is Texas, where efficient permitting and interconnection enable project development in two to three years. This has unleashed rapid generator investment that lowers costs and emissions while augmenting grid reliability despite remarkable demand growth.